7 scenarios of how tourism could change due to COVID-19
At some point the day will come: the day after the crisis. And even if travel is currently an absolutely subordinate topic for many outside the tourism industry, it will become more important again after the crisis. The only question is under which paradigms travel will take place. Because we are currently massively changing our live together, our behavior and our view of the world. And it is not unlikely that many of these changes in behavior will be permanent. How does this affect tourism?
Seven scenarios that should stimulate discussion and disagreement:
Don’t take any chances! We learned to avoid crowds during the crisis. Therefore, we go on vacation with our own car only and avoid collective means of transportation such as bus, train and plane, but also carsharing. Only your own car offers the necessary safety and comfort zone.
- Nearby and medium-distance destinations will benefit. The increase in individual traffic will push the transport infrastructure at tourist hotspots to its limits.
Following the reporting of some Asian countries on the crisis management of the European governments, often the term “European arrogance” comes across . This term describes the Europeans’ view of methods (such as tracking apps) that have successfully contained the crisis in Asia, but which, from a European perspective, cannot be implemented in European societies.
- Asian destinations will increasingly seek tourists from nearby source markets. This development will benefit from the earlier waning of the crisis in Asia. In Future guests from European markets will be classified and excluded as a risk group.
Guests become aliens
In the crisis we learned that every stranger is a potential health hazard. Currently, people of Asian origin are particularly suspiciously eyed when coughing in public, and drivers with non-local license plates are addressed to go back to where they came from.
- Outside the circle of people working professionally in tourism, locals keep a distance to foreigners. Visitors are aliens and a threat. The current megatrend to immerse oneself in the daily life of the place visited on vacation is out.
Bye-bye carefree cruises
The image of the cruise industry has suffered badly during the crisis. Unforgettable are the pictures of the passengers who were quarantined on their luxury liners in their cabins under solitary confinement conditions.
- In the future, destinations will consider very carefully whether they still allow the supply of the cruise ships in their ports or allow passengers to go ashore. Precise health and passport controls are intended to minimize risks, which will lead to long waiting times before and during the trip. The time of carefree sea travel is over for now
Death of a salesman
The crisis was a boost to digitalization. Many industries had to switch to a virtual organization within a few days. And – oh wonder – it worked to a large extent. Workshops, meetings, presentations can also be conveniently carried out from homeoffice, the travel times are used for better preparation and coordination. Homeoffice has achieved a breakthrough in acceptance among employers and employees.
- This development is not reversible. Conference hotels, trade fairs and event locations are facing difficult times and must convince their clients with new offers and added value.
Or, in the end everything will be fine and if not, then it is still not the end…
What a wonderful world
Isolation and social distancing have shown us how important interpersonal encounters are to us. The crisis also showed us how important solidarity, creativity and cooperation are. A strong state has averted the worst consequences of the crisis with massive support.
- Freedom of movement and vacations are now perceived as a privilege that is handled more consciously. After months of insecurity and deprivation, people want to treat themselves again. Get out of their own four walls. Variety is now the order of the day. Life dreams will no longer be procrastinated but are realized now. The tourism industry benefits from all these needs and is more vital than ever.
What do you think will come after the crisis?
Discuss with us live:
Thursday 9.4. between 11:00 and 12:00 am.
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